Every election year, as the ballots are counted, we get to look at maps detailing who’s ahead in which states.  Most of us go to bed hoping that the candidate we voted for will win, but in reality, nothing is set until the Electoral College votes.  So what are the results we’ve been looking at?

The vote tallies that we watch on election night denote the projected winner of each state, or the candidate who, at that point in time, has a higher percentage of the votes.  Once all of the votes are counted, a projected winner for the national popular vote is announced.  Most years, we can be fairly sure of the projected winner by the end of election night.  This year, however, is noticeably different.

With the increase in voting by mail and early voting due to the pandemic, national polls have been showing projected winners for many states for the last week.  The remaining states are the battleground states, which we learned about last week.  This isn’t really any different from normal election years, but this election does have a clear political split in who is voting by mail and who is voting in person.  News outlets have been saying for weeks that most Democrats are voting early or by mail, while the bulk of the Republican party is choosing to vote in person on election day.  There’s nothing inherently wrong with this.  Again, people vote however they’re most comfortable voting.  It becomes an issue, however, when it comes to projected winners.

Because of the political split, we are facing what are called “mirages” or “waves” this year.  This means that one candidate may appear to be pulling ahead in a state based on one method of voting, but when election officials in that state begin to count other types of ballots, the projected winner may change.  And since there are significantly more mail-in ballots this year, it is very likely that, due to the political split, many states may seem to go to President Trump on election day.  In other states, where mail-in votes are already being counted, the opposite may be true.

What is most important to remember, though, is that a winner cannot be declared until every vote has been counted.  States aren’t required to certify the winner of their popular election until December 14, 2020, as we learned when we discussed the Electoral College.  My advice would then be this:  until after that point, take the term projected winner with a grain of salt.  Some states my certify their winners earlier, but not all of them will, so for the time being, just try to wait it out and see what happens.

Wishing you all a safe and not-too-nerve-wracking election night, Susan P.S. This is the last installment in this series.  I promise I’ll be bringing back the less serious content soon 😊