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Understanding the US Election System, Part 2: Battleground States

Battleground states, also known as swing states, are states that have the have the potential to turn the election in favor of one candidate, depending on how their voters vote.  I find them a little difficult to understand, since the states designated as battleground states seem to change every election.  That said, let’s spend a little time today learning what they are.

Also called “purple states” because their populations are roughly evenly split between the Democrat and Republican parties, the electoral votes of battleground states are often what decide our presidential elections.  It is important to distinguish these states from the others, as most states tend to consistently vote along party lines.  As a result, political candidates often focus the bulk of their campaigning in these swing states in the hopes that they will be able to sway enough of the population to give them the popular vote and, therefore, the electoral vote as well. 

Swing states are determined by looking at how close the vote was in each state.  If the vote is particularly close and the state tends to flip between parties, then it is labeled as a battleground state.  These states change with every election, although there are a few that tend to consistently pop up:  Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, and Wisconsin.

Now that we know what battleground states are, let’s look at what states have been labeled as battleground states for the 2020 election.  This year’s election will likely hinge on the electoral votes of seven states:  Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  If these states choose to vote for one particular candidate, then that candidate is more likely to win.  There are also several other states to keep an eye on this year, as they will have particularly competitive elections but don’t have the political history to be officially classed as a battleground state for this election.  These states are Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas.  All other states are currently expected to vote with the same parties they have in the past.

So there you have it, a little dive into battleground states and what they mean for the election.  With as tight as the election is this year and with the influx of mail in votes, it’s important to understand why the vote may swing one way or another.  Next week, for the final installment of this series, we will look into projected winners, and why they may be more difficult to determine this year.

Sources:  Wikipedia, Ballotpedia